@EdWorkingPaper{ai25-1233,
title = "School Enrollment Shifts Five Years After the Pandemic",
author = "Abigail Francis, Joshua Goodman",
institution = "Annenberg Institute at Brown University",
number = "1233",
year = "2025",
month = "June",
URL = "http://www.edworkingpapers.com/ai25-1233",
abstract = {The pandemic induced a substantial enrollment shift away from public schools in fall 2020 and a partial return of students in fall 2021, leaving longer-term impacts unclear. We use Massachusetts state- and district-level data to explore enrollment patterns five years after the pandemic’s onset. Relative to pre-pandemic trends, fall 2024 enrollment is down 2% in local public schools, up 14% in private schools, and up 45% in home schools. The highest income 20% of districts have lost more public school students than the other 80% combined, with these lower income districts having largely recovered. White and Asian public school enrollments have stabilized at levels 3% and 8% below pre-pandemic trends, while Black and Hispanic enrollments have more than fully recovered. Public school losses are almost entirely concentrated in middle grades (5-8), where enrollment is down 8%, suggesting families place particular weight on those ages when making post-pandemic schooling choices. Five years in, the pandemic has had sustained effects on the size and demographic composition of public schools.},
}