Course Failure in Dual Enrollment and the Impact on College-Going

Dual enrollment (DE) has expanded rapidly as a strategy to broaden access to college-level coursework, particularly for students historically excluded from advanced academic opportunities. This study examines the characteristics of students who fail dual enrollment, the consequences of failure, and whether attempting DE retains value even for students who do not succeed. Using administrative data on approximately 1.74 million California public high school students, we analyze how failure risk varies across the prior achievement distribution and whether patterns differ by socioeconomic status. 

We find that socioeconomically disadvantaged students are more likely to fail DE courses at every level of prior academic achievement, and that this gap widens among higher-achieving students. This pattern, which we term the preparation paradox, suggests that differences in prior academic preparation cannot fully explain observed disparities in outcomes. We then examine the consequences of failure and find that failing a DE course is associated with a substantial reduction in college enrollment. However, these consequences are similar across socioeconomic groups. Finally, we show that students who attempt DE and fail are still more likely to enroll in college than comparable students who never enroll in DE at all. 

Taken together, the results suggest that the central challenge in dual enrollment is not that failure is more harmful for disadvantaged students, but that these students face a higher probability of failure regardless of prior preparation. The findings point to the importance of support structures that enable academically capable students to succeed, rather than policies that restrict access based on perceived readiness.