What are Promises Made of? The Design of Local College Affordability Programs

U.S. postsecondary education is populated by hundreds of state and local affordability initiatives sometimes referred to as “Promise programs”, many of which claim to make college free or tuition-free. These programs vary tremendously in terms of what they provide, where they can be used, and who is eligible for them. But we know little about the details of their structuring, or about the prevalence of various design features. This makes it difficult to know to what degree findings regarding one program are relevant to any specific unstudied program or to affordability programs generally. We address this gap, systematically analyzing the websites of 314 local Promise programs operating in 2022-23 to describe and measure a wide array of design features. We find, first, that program design variance is highly complex; we discuss 11 rules relating to what is provided, 4 to where programs may be used, and 25 relating to eligibility. Second, the best-studied programs are highly atypical; most programs are usable at single colleges, at community colleges, and have several eligibility requirements beyond residence. Third, there are strong indications that problems use design rules strategically to contain costs, counteracting generosity in one rule with frugality in others. We also highlight the importance of state policy in the creation of local programs and the large number of single-college programs operated by public four-year colleges. This research, while highly applied and empirical, fills crucial gaps in research on free college/Promise programs and financial aid program structuration more generally.