The Static Nature of the Childcare Workforce, 1990 to 2025

Despite decades of policy attention aimed at strengthening the early childhood care and education workforce, concerns about low pay, high turnover, and limited economic security persist. This paper revisits whether the composition and economic conditions of the childcare workforce have meaningfully changed by documenting long-run trends from 1990 to 2025. Using nationally representative data from the March Annual Social and Economic Supplement of the Current Population Survey, I analyze trends in demographics, reliance on economic support, and earnings and employment dynamics across childcare sectors. I find that aggregate wage gains mask modest within-sector growth, driven largely by compositional shifts away from home-based care rather than real pay increases. Childcare earnings have not kept pace with broader female workforce gains, and post-pandemic turnover rebounded to near pre-pandemic levels, erasing the modest gains achieved in the intervening years despite temporary compensation stabilization through the American Rescue Plan. School-based settings remain more economically attractive than center- or home-based care, a pattern that persists despite sustained investments in early childcare. Finally, trends in workforce composition and material hardship closely mirror those of female and low-wage workers broadly. These findings highlight the persistent nature of the childcare workforce and suggest that sector-specific policy interventions have not fundamentally altered who childcare jobs attract or their economic viability.