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Predicting Persistence and Fadeout Across Multi-Site RCTs of an Early Childhood Mathematics Curriculum Intervention

Tyler W. Watts,
Caroline M. Botvin,
Drew H. Bailey,
Emma R. Hart,
Shira Mattera,
Douglas H. Clements,
Julie Sarama,
Dale Farran,
Mark Lipsey

This study examined predictors of persistence and fadeout across multiple cluster RCTs that evaluated a preschool mathematics curriculum. We used meta-analytic methods to explore how impacts on student mathematics achievement faded between post-test (i.e., endline) and one-year follow-up. We found that the magnitude of the impact at post-test was a strong predictor of the one-year follow-up impact. Contrary to popular theory, we found that intervention impacts faded faster when students attended sites that showed more learning in the year following the end of the intervention. Factors related to intervention fidelity and dosage did not strongly predict fadeout patterns after considering the magnitude of the post-test effect. Results suggest that educational program evaluators can use immediate impacts to forecast follow-up effects.

Keywords
Achievement, Early Childhood, Mathematics Education, Meta-Analysis, Multi-site Studies, Longitudinal Studies, Experimental Design
Education level
K-12 Education
Topics
Student Learning
Tags
Child development,
Early childhood education,
Mathematics education
Download 01/2026
Appendix
Document Object Identifier (DOI)
10.26300/8ajf-4e22
EdWorkingPaper suggested citation:
Watts, Tyler W., Caroline M. Botvin, Drew H. Bailey, Emma R. Hart, Shira Mattera, Douglas H. Clements, Julie Sarama, Dale Farran, and Mark Lipsey. (). Predicting Persistence and Fadeout Across Multi-Site RCTs of an Early Childhood Mathematics Curriculum Intervention. (EdWorkingPaper: -1365). Retrieved from Annenberg Institute at Brown University: https://doi.org/10.26300/8ajf-4e22

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