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Causal Returns to Education

Using 182 estimates from 140 studies in 55 countries, this paper compares ordinary least squares (OLS) and instrumental variables (IV) estimates of the private returns to schooling. IV returns average 9.7 percent—38 percent higher than OLS—and exceed OLS in nearly 80 percent of cases, with the largest gaps in developing countries. These patterns align with theories of diminishing marginal returns, scarcity rents, and attenuation from measurement error. While IV methods mitigate bias, instrument validity and external validity concerns persist. Evidence consistently shows substantial causal returns, particularly for disadvantaged populations, underscoring the need for rigorous research.

Keywords
Returns to education; Endogeneity; Human capital
Education level
Document Object Identifier (DOI)
10.26300/jk79-8538
EdWorkingPaper suggested citation:
Patrinos, Harry Anthony, and George Psacharopoulos. (). Causal Returns to Education. (EdWorkingPaper: -1272). Retrieved from Annenberg Institute at Brown University: https://doi.org/10.26300/jk79-8538

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