Search and Filter
Returns to education and skills
Do Test Scores Misrepresent Test Results? An Item-by-Item Analysis
Much of the data collected in education is effectively thrown away. Students answer individual test questions, but administrators and researchers only see aggregate performance. All the item-level data are lost. Ex ante it is not clear this destroys much useful information, since the aggregate… more →
Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment
Tags: Career and technical education, College readiness, Higher education, Human capital, Returns to education and skillsDeclining U.S. college enrollments have triggered questions about the health of the postsecondary sector. Using institution-level data, we make four points. First, such declines are driven not by the four-year sector but by two-year community colleges, which have apparently shrunk by over 30%… more →
The Long-Term Effects of Rank in Elementary School
We estimate the long-term consequences of math and reading rank within an elementary school on short and long-term outcomes. We find that higher rank leads to better outcomes. Students ranked at the top in grade 7 perform up to 0.33 standard deviations higher on future school exams, are more… more →
Higher Education as Regional Development: Labor Market Impacts of Nigeria’s 2011 Federal University Expansion
Topics: Policy, Politics, and GovernanceThis paper examines the causal impact of higher education expansion on regional labor markets and human capital development. Exploiting the 2011 establishment of nine federal universities across previously underserved Nigerian states, we implement a difference-in-differences approach to analyze… more →
The Labor Market Impact of K-11 vs. K-12
Topics: Policy, Politics, and GovernanceIn 1945, Louisiana extended secondary education from 11 years to 12. Since many students followed diploma-based stopping rules, consecutive birth cohorts exogenously received different amounts of schooling. We use this natural experiment to evaluate the long-run labor market impact of having an… more →
Causal Returns to Education
Topics: Policy, Politics, and GovernanceUsing 182 estimates from 140 studies in 55 countries, this paper compares ordinary least squares (OLS) and instrumental variables (IV) estimates of the private returns to schooling. IV returns average 9.7 percent—38 percent higher than OLS—and exceed OLS in nearly 80 percent of cases, with the… more →
The Net Benefits of Raising Bachelor’s Degree Completion through the City University of New York ACE Program
Judith Scott-Clayton, Irwin Garfinkel, Elizabeth Ananat, Sophie Collyer, Robert Paul Hartley, Anastasia Koutavas, Buyi Wang, Christopher Wimer.In 2015, the City University of New York (CUNY) launched a new program— Accelerate, Complete, and Engage (ACE)—aimed at improving college graduation rates. A randomized-control evaluation of the program found a nearly 12 percentage point increase in graduation five years after college entry.… more →
The Effect of Raising School Quality on Earnings
Topics: Student LearningThe evidence underscores the need to shift attention from school attainment to actual learning. While the average global return to an additional year of schooling is about 10 percent, a one standard deviation increase in test scores raises earnings by 15 percent. Studies show that including… more →
College as a Marriage Market
College graduates tend to marry each other. We use detailed Norwegian data to show that strong assortativity further arises by institution and field of study, especially among high earners from elite programs. Admission discontinuities reveal that enrollment itself, rather than selection,… more →
Searching for the Queen’s Gambit: An Exploratory Analysis of Male-Female Ratings Gaps in U.S. Chess
Topics: Student LearningWe examine the origin and evolution of male-female rating gaps for young chess players using two decades of data from the U.S. Chess Federation, the national chess association that tracks competitive tournament play and provides ratings for U.S. chess players. An important feature of our… more →
Investing in College Readiness: Societal Benefits and Costs of the El Dorado College Promise Program
A growing volume of research shows college promise programs increase the likelihood that students enroll in and complete college. Place-based promise programs provide a guaranteed college scholarship for students who attend a specified school district. We examine the societal benefits and costs… more →
Switching Schools: Effects of College Transfers
Over one-third of college students in the United States transfer between institutions, yet little is known about how transferring affects students’ educational and labor market outcomes. Using administrative data from Texas and a regression discontinuity design, I study the effects of a student’… more →
Education and the Gender Gap in U.S. Presidential Elections
Topics: Policy, Politics, and GovernanceWomen in the United States have outpaced men in both voter participation and educational attainment in recent decades. Since education is closely tied to political participation, we consider these trends in tandem and assess how much of the gender gap in voting is attributable to educational… more →
Do Dual Enrollment Students Realize Better Long-Run Earnings? Variations in Financial Outcomes Among Key Student Groups
Navi Dhaliwal, Sayeeda Jamilah, McKenna Griffin, Dillon Lu, David Mahan, Trey Miller, Holly Kosiewicz.This study considers whether dual enrollment is associated with students’ financial outcomes over a longer, twelve-year time horizon after high school graduation than previously analyzed in the existing literature. Using longitudinal administrative data that span K-12, higher education, and the… more →
The Costs and Benefits of North Carolina’s Early College High School Model
Early colleges are high schools that blend the high school and college experiences. They have been shown to increase college enrollment and completion; however less is known about the costs of the early college model relative to traditional high schools. We leverage randomized assignment of… more →
Return on Investment or Ripoff? Examining the Returns to New Master’s Degree Programs
Topics: Policy, Politics, and GovernanceUniversities have created more than 14,000 new master’s degree programs in the last two decades, and much of this is likely driven by an effort to increase institutional revenues during challenging financial times. But this expansion in graduate education creates a risk that these new programs… more →
Do Human Capital Adjustments Protect Youths from Structural Change?
Structural changes to labor demand can have lasting consequences on the employment and earnings of workers in affected industries and geographies. However, individuals coming of age may avoid similar fates if they internalize salient changes to the returns to education and adjust their human… more →
Skills and Earnings: A Multidimensional Perspective on Human Capital
Topics: Student LearningThe multitude of tasks performed in the labor market requires skills in many dimensions. Traditionally, human capital has been proxied primarily by educational attainment. However, an expanding body of literature highlights the importance of various skill dimensions for success in the labor… more →
The Effects of Losing Pell Grant Eligibility on Student Outcomes
Topics: Policy, Politics, and GovernanceWhile initial Pell Grant eligibility is solely determined by financial need, students must achieve Satisfactory Academic Progress to retain it. Students eligible for higher aid are less likely to complete college when they lose eligibility compared to those with lower aid. This non-random… more →
The Returns to Education over time and the Effect of COVID-19
This paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the returns to education in the United States. Using data from the Current Population Survey 2011-2022, the analysis reveals that, after a period of decline, returns to education increased significantly because of COVID, particularly… more →