The Effects of Universal School Vouchers on Private School Tuition and Enrollment: A National Analysis

September 2025

Three-quarters of a century after Milton Friedman popularized the idea, universal school vouchers have suddenly become a reality in 17 states since 2021. These new policies promise to be one of the most far-reaching reforms in U.S. education history. We make two contributions to understanding this policy. First, we provide a rich description of the private school sector nationally. We show that private schools vary widely and are much smaller and cheaper than is typically understood. Second, we study the policy’s short-term effects on student enrollment and tuition using difference-in-differences analysis comparing the 11 states that adopted universal vouchers between 2021 and 2024 to non-universal voucher states. We find that universal vouchers have started to reshape the schooling market. Private school enrollment has increased by 3-4 percent relative to non-voucher states on average, mainly in schools with low baseline enrollments and non-Catholic religious schools. Vouchers have also likely increased private school tuition by 5-10 percent, primarily in non-religious schools and those that had low-enrollment/low-tuition at baseline. We also discuss the effects of COVID on enrollment and tuition, which complicates the analysis and interpretation of the voucher effects. Finally, we explain why the effects have been small so far and why they are likely to grow as schools and families adjust to the new policy reality.

Keywords

School choice, school vouchers, market-based reform

Education level

K-12 Education

Topics

School Choice