Practical Measures, Routines & Representations (PMR²) Whole Class Discussion Survey
Category: Student Learning
Chronic absenteeism rose sharply following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and has declined only modestly since, yet most evidence remains cross-sectional and cannot distinguish persistence from redistribution in absence behavior. Using a cohort transition framework, the analysis compares students' typical absence profiles across pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods. The results show substantial redistribution toward higher-absence profiles. Nearly 10% of students with historically very low absence transitioned into chronic or severe absence post-pandemic. Black and Hispanic students face higher probabilities of entering chronic and severe absence than White students, even when starting from comparable pre-pandemic absence profiles. These findings indicate that post-pandemic absenteeism reflects both persistence and redistribution, with implications for equitable prevention and re-engagement strategies.