University of Utah
Human-, GRM-, and LLM-Generated School-Improvement Leadership Scores from Missouri: Structural Bias and Concurrent and Predictive Validity
Head or assistant principal evaluation systems are widely deployed but rarely examined for validity, and AI scoring tools have entered K–12 workflows ahead of the evidence. We examine human supervisor ratings, Graded Response Model (GRM) rescaling, and large language model (LLM) scoring of 1,385… more →
How Not to Fool Ourselves About Heterogeneity of Treatment Effects
Researchers across many fields have called for greater attention to heterogeneity of treatment effects—shifting focus from the average effect to variation in effects between different treatments, studies, or subgroups. True heterogeneity is important, but many reports of heterogeneity… more →
The Returns to Experience for School Principals
Despite increasing recognition of the importance of high-quality school leadership, we know remarkably little about principal skill development. Using administrative data from Tennessee, Oregon, and New York City, we estimate the returns to principal experience as measured by student outcomes,… more →
Rent-Seeking through Collective Bargaining: Teachers Unions and Education Production
We explore how teachers unions affect education production by comparing outcomes between districts allocating new tax revenue amidst collective bargaining negotiations and districts allocating tax revenue well before. Districts facing union pressure increase teacher salaries and benefits, spend… more →
Ready to Lead on Day One: Predicting Novice Principal Effectiveness with Information Available at Time of Hire
High rates of principal turnover nationally mean that school districts constantly are called on to recruit and select new principals. The importance of a school’s principal makes choosing candidates who will be effective paramount, yet we have little evidence linking information known to school… more →
Assistant Principal Mobility and its Relationship with Principal Turnover
Assistant principals are important education personnel, both as essential members of school leadership teams and apprentice principals. However, empirical evidence on their career outcomes remains scarce. Using statewide administrative data from Tennessee and Missouri, we provide the first… more →