The West Texas Measles Outbreak and Student Absences

Declining child-vaccination rates are driving a measles resurgence in the US, yet little evidence documents how these outbreaks may disrupt schooling. Using daily absence data from a school district at the center of the West Texas outbreak, this preregistered analysis finds absences increased 41 percent relative to the within-year variation from two prior years, with larger effects among younger students. This increase is 10 times greater than expected from confirmed infections, suggesting substantial precautionary absences and possible infection undercounting. These findings provide early evidence on the impact of vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks on learning opportunities, with implications for broader child development.

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Absences at this Texas school system soared when a measles outbreak hit
AP News - 12/16/2025 - By  MAKIYA SEMINERA and DEVI SHASTRI

When a measles outbreak hit West Texas earlier this year, school absences surged to levels far beyond the number of children who likely became sick, according to a study, as students were excluded or kept home by their families to minimize the spread of the disease.

Absences in Seminole Independent School District, a school system that served students at the heart of the outbreak, climbed 41% across all grade levels compared with the same period the two previous years, according to the Stanford University study.

The preliminary study, which has not been published or finished a formal peer review, offers a glimpse at the toll on student learning from the spread of measles, a highly contagious disease that has crept up in communities around the U.S. with low vaccination rates. In Texas and nationally, about two-thirds of measles cases have been among unvaccinated children. When measles is spreading, public health officials respond by excluding unvaccinated students from schools.

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