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Breno Braga
The Effects of Public Pre-K for 3-year-olds on Early Elementary School Outcomes: Evidence from the DC Centralized Lottery
This study examines the effects of universal public pre-kindergarten for 3-year-olds (Pre-K3) on later public education outcomes, including enrollment, school mobility, special education status, and in-grade retention from kindergarten through second grade. While universal pre-kindergarten programs typically target 4-year-olds, interest in expanding to 3-year-olds is growing. Using the centralized assignment lottery in the District of Columbia as the basis for a quasi-experimental design, we find that Pre-K3 students are more likely to persist in the public system and remain in the same school. These effects are strongest for residents of low-income neighborhoods and communities of color and for students enrolled in dual language programs. Overall, public Pre-K3 appears to stabilize children’s early educational experiences, especially those starting furthest from opportunity.
Lottery-Based Evaluations of Early Education Programs: Opportunities and Challenges for Building the Next Generation of Evidence
Lottery-based identification strategies offer potential for generating the next generation of evidence on U.S. early education programs. Our collaborative network of five research teams applying this design in early education and methods experts has identified six challenges that need to be carefully considered in this next context: 1) available baseline covariates may not be very rich; 2) limited data on the counterfactual; 3) limited and inconsistent outcome data; 4) weakened internal validity due to attrition; 5) constrained external validity due to who competes for oversubscribed programs; and 6) difficulties answering site-level questions with child-level randomization. We offer potential solutions to these six challenges and concrete recommendations for the design of future lottery-based early education studies.